Choose an opportunity and its riskiest assumptions

Lesson objective

By the end of this lesson, you will be able to link a measurable product outcome to opportunities and several solutions in an opportunity solution tree, choose a target opportunity and identify the riskiest assumption to test.

Topics covered

• opportunity solution tree
• riskiest assumptions
• product discovery
• product outcomes
• assumption testing

Where it fits

Understand the problem

Which problem, for whom, and what evidence do we have?

Lessons in this module

1. Write a testable problem statement
2. Run and synthesize discovery interviews, with AI
3. Evidence-based personas and job stories
4. Choose an opportunity and its riskiest assumptions (this lesson)

What you will learn in the course

This lesson is part of the course Design and validate a product experience with AI

• Write a user-centered, testable problem statement backed by discovery evidence.
• Prepare, run and synthesize unbiased discovery interviews, using AI for preparation and synthesis without delegating judgment to it.
• Build a persona and job stories grounded in real quotes, then choose a target opportunity in an opportunity solution tree.
• Map a flow with its edge cases and turn it into low-fidelity wireframes that cover every screen state.
• Choose a prototype's fidelity and tool (including an AI prototyping tool), run a usability test and prioritize the problems observed.
• Prioritize a backlog with an explicit method (RICE, MoSCoW, value / effort), making the score's assumptions visible, and justify the trade-off.
• Build an outcome-based roadmap with success criteria, and write a handoff spec with acceptance criteria.

Related courses

• Write specs that developers and AI agents understandAdvanced · ~2 hr 30 min
• Instrument a product and use data to make decisionsAdvanced · ~3 hr 30 min
• Prioritize and build an outcome-based roadmapAdvanced · ~2 hr 30 min